Only seven ships have crossed the Strait of Hormuz since the US‑Iran deal was announced, yet more than 580 vessels are queued in the Gulf, according to MarineTraffic data.
The Biden administration claimed the strait would reopen without tolls, but a patchwork of obstacles is holding back maritime traffic.
1. Security & safety
Iran has fired at vessels attempting to traverse the strait since late February, and the United States has imposed a naval blockade and disabled nine non‑compliant ships. Warships are positioned near the Gulf of Oman, and captains warn that a passage would be risky without clear directives.
2. Mine threat
Iran threatens to deploy floating mines if its coastline is attacked. The International Maritime Organization calls mine removal essential before traffic can resume. Clearing the strait could take 30 days to six months with slow navigation needed to survey underwater hazards.
3. Tolls or fees
Historically ships could navigate the strait free of charge. The new Iranian proposal suggests a “service fee” under a “co‑ordination” model run by Iran and Oman, but questions remain on who enforces it, how they collect funds, and the impact on daily throughput.
Despite political steps toward reopening, commercial shipping is likely to normalize gradually. Greek carriers, with a reputation for risk‑taking, may act as a confidence‑builder, while reverse‑clearance teams focus on mine‑hunting to re‑establish safe passage.
The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea does not apply to the strait, but both the United States and Iran assert customary international law regarding free passage. The situation remains complex, with military, regulatory and commercial factors all intersecting to delay the once‑busy waterway from resuming its role as a global oil corridor.
