In brief
As President-elect Donald J. Trump prepares to assume office, Biden's team highlights diplomatic openings created through weakening adversaries in Russia, China, and Iran, even as Trump's critics argue otherwise about the international landscape.
When President Biden recently assessed his foreign policy accomplishments, he urged President-elect Donald J. Trump to leverage the diplomatic groundwork laid by his administration. This sentiment has resonated through various speeches and discussions by Biden’s foreign policy team, who assert that they are leaving behind a more favorable geopolitical climate for the incoming administration to navigate. They argue that America’s adversaries are in disarray: Russia finds itself isolated and mired in the protracted conflict in Ukraine, China is grappling with severe economic and demographic challenges, and Iran appears weaker than at any point in recent history. Additionally, after a prolonged diplomatic push, there are signs of a potential Israel-Hamas cease-fire on the horizon, with the possibility of broader stability in the Middle East.This perspective, however, contains an inherent self-interest, essentially advising Trump: “Don’t squander this.” Conversely, Trump’s camp contends that Biden’s hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan conveyed an image of vulnerability to Russian President Vladimir Putin and that the current administration is failing to adequately counter Iran’s nuclear advancements. They argue that while Biden’s approach to China was assertive, it did not go far enough.Despite these conflicting narratives, there are promising avenues for diplomacy that lie ahead for Trump. However, previous historical patterns raise concerns that he might resort to threats of military action towards both adversaries and allies alike if his demands are unmet—examples of which include tensions involving Iran and past U.S. interventions.Among the most pressing issues on the agenda is the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, where hopes persist that a resolution can be found. While concrete evidence of Putin seeking an exit remains scarce, the pivotal question is whether he sees merit in negotiating peace. Since a televised debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump has made optimistic claims of reaching a deal within twenty-four hours, or even finalizing one before his inauguration. In navigating the choppy waters of international relations, Trump may indeed find opportunities if he manages to balance assertiveness with diplomacy, as the world watches closely in anticipation.
