In brief
Germany is set for complex coalition negotiations as even strong performances by the Alternative for Germany (AfD) are likely to keep it out of power.
The upcoming government in Germany is shaping up to be a coalition of multiple parties, with one significant exclusion: the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). Despite early exit polls showing the AfD capturing second place, the mainstream German parties are unified in their refusal to include it in any governing coalition, adhering to a longstanding strategy known as the "firewall." This approach aims to prevent extreme political influences from gaining traction in the post-World War II era.The AfD has made substantial gains by capitalizing on public concern about mass migration, promising strict deportation measures. Nevertheless, mainstream parties label the AfD as extreme due to its connections to extremist elements and past legal violations among its members, including the promotion of Nazi slogans. Recent incidents, such as a volunteer greeting canvassers with a Nazi salute, have further underlined concerns about the party's ideologies.While Germany has successfully kept its far-right party out of power, other nations have seen their political firewalls challenged in recent years. Notably, U.S. Vice President JD Vance recently encouraged collaboration with far-right parties in Europe, urging a reconsideration of existing barriers. However, Germany's political landscape continues to reject this notion, with notable leaders vowing to maintain the firewall post-election—particularly Friedrich Merz, a leading candidate to become the next Chancellor.Should the AfD exceed expectations with over 20 percent of the vote, the political dynamics could shift, forcing other parties to reevaluate their stance. This situation introduces uncertainty regarding the future of the firewall and its viability amidst growing public sentiment towards the far-right.Jim Tankersley is the Berlin bureau chief for The Times, specializing in coverage of Germany, Austria, and Switzerland.
